Hunter Biden conviction brings little movement to presidential election race
Americans have witnessed two historically unprecedented and politically charged cases over the last month involving the last two presidents. President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden, was convicted of three felony firearm charges on Tuesday, marking the first time a president's child has been convicted of a crime. This follows the historic conviction of former President Donald Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Despite limited polling results showing a slight decline in Trump's standing, the case has not significantly impacted the race. Despite this, both Biden and Trump are deeply unpopular and voters have largely decided their choice based on their own candidate. Hunter Biden is facing another trial in September for tax evasion without ties to the president, another case without relation to him. There has been mixed reaction from Republicans in Congress about Hunter Biden's legal troubles and overseas business dealings.
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Americans have witnessed two historically unprecedented and politically charged cases over the last month involving the last two presidents and candidates in the November election result in felony convictions, further highlighting the role the justice system could play in the 2024 election.
President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden was convicted of three felony firearm charges on Tuesday by a jury in Delaware, the first time a president’s child has been convicted of a crime. Former President Donald Trump’s conviction of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records also set history with the first-ever conviction of a president or former president.
Limited polling that has come out since Trump’s conviction in Manhattan has indicated a slight decline in his standing, but the unprecedented case has not significantly shifted the race. Several polls found a modest shift to Biden from Trump after the conviction, but the race is still within the margin of error and likely to be decided by a slim margin.
Surveys taken in the run-up to the 2020 election when Hunter Biden’s troubles were something Trump sought to make a core issue for then-nominee Joe Biden’s campaign and more recent data have shown that voters have separated the president from his son’s legal issues.
There has been little movement in the head-to-head matchups in polling with less than five months before Election Day with two well-established, highly recognizable figures up against each other in a rematch of the 2020 election. Trump and Biden are both deeply unpopular with an electorate that has mostly made up its mind about who they are willing to support.
Trump’s conviction brought modest movement, but it appears unlikely that Hunter Biden’s will do the same in a matchup of such notable political figures. Hunter Biden is facing another trial in September where he is facing nine charges from federal prosecutors for failing to pay around $1.4 million in taxes from 2016 to 2019, another case without ties to the president.
“In an election where there's no defining a candidate, because the candidates are already defined, all you can do is mobilize your voters. There's really no persuasion anymore,” said Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University.
There has been a mixed reaction from Republicans in Congress that have sought to make Hunter Biden, his legal troubles and overseas business dealings a drag on the president and his reelection campaign. Some have brushed the conviction off, while others have said it is just the beginning of accountability for what they have described as the “Biden crime family” that has been the subject of multiple GOP-led investigations in the House.
Trump’s campaign called Hunter Biden’s conviction a “distraction” and accused Biden of committing unspecified crimes.
“This trial has been nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family, which has raked in tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine,” said Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary. “Crooked Joe Biden’s reign over the Biden Family Criminal Empire is all coming to an end on November 5, and never again will a Biden sell government access for personal profit.”
None of the House investigations have been able to find concrete evidence that the president committed any wrongdoing in his son’s affairs and have raised concerns from some GOP lawmakers about the ongoing impeachment inquiry.
Trump and other Republicans could ramp up the attacks toward Hunter Biden as the campaign continues, especially during the upcoming debates, though that presents a risk in giving the president an opportunity to appear as an empathetic leader to people who have loved ones with an addiction to drugs or alcohol. It was a strategy Trump tried during the 2020 debates that seemingly backfired with Biden’s response offering support for his son and relating to millions of Americans how know some fighting addiction.
“Trump's going to want to bring it up, and I think that his debate prep is going to ‘say don't do it,’” Dagnes said. “You're not going to win support making fun of alcoholics and drug addicts. You're just not.”
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