Don Paul's forecast: Unsettled conditions to continue into the weekend
This weekend, unsettled conditions will be with us, at times, on both days, making outdoor plans more difficult to schedule, Paul says. Unsettled conditions are expected to continue throughout the weekend, making outdoor activities more difficult. This follows a period of rain that saw half an inch of rain for Buffalo and over 1 inch for Lewiston and Dunkirk. Despite this, Don Paul predicts scattered and occasional showers, which will make outdoor plans more difficult to schedule. For shorter-term planning, you can track the changeable sky with satellite imagery and National Weather Service radar updates. Monday will remain seasonably cool, with most of the unsettled conditions likely to occur in the morning when a low pressure trough and another cool front cross the region. The weather will return to a mostly dry period starting Tuesday, with milder temperatures expected to return to well above average by Thursday. Global warming is predicted to contribute to more wind shear and turbulence at flight levels, according to climate modelers.
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Last weekend, we had a splendid Saturday and a solid Sunday morning until the afternoon went soggy on us. This weekend, unsettled conditions will be with us, at times, on both days, making outdoor plans more difficult to schedule.
After a bubble of drier air allowed some sunshine to break through Thursday afternoon (following half an inch of rain for Buffalo, and more than 1 inch for Lewiston and Dunkirk Wednesday night and Thursday morning), the aforementioned unsettled conditions will be returning during Friday. “Unsettled” does not equate to widespread steady rain, but it does suggest scattered and occasional showers will be with us at times, as modeled for Friday afternoon .
For shorter-term planning, you can track the changeable sky with this automatically updating satellite imagery , a good link to bookmark.
As for actual rainfall and thunderstorms, another bookmark-worthy link is automatically updating Buffalo National Weather Service radar , which also displays polygons when warnings are issued.
After Thursday’s low-mid 70s, Friday’s mid 60s accompanied by a 10-20 mph breeze will feel rather cool, under a mostly cloudy sky.
The spotty showers will diminish Friday night, and Saturday will begin with some modest improvement in appearance. Some sunny breaks will be with us into early afternoon. There will be a stiff, chilly breeze, southwest at 15-30 mph. By mid or late afternoon, more widespread showers will return .
Waves will increase to a least 2-4 feet on both lakes, with temps only reaching the low-mid 60s.
Sunday brings no real improvement. More occasional showers will be with us, with a below-average high in the upper 60s and a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The breeze will pick up by midday , creating 2-3 foot waves on both lakes.
I have a talented local musician friend who was very upset at last Sunday afternoon’s rain. I hope he doesn’t suffer more canceled outdoor gigs this weekend.
Monday will remain seasonably cool. Current guidance suggests most of the unsettled conditions will occur in the morning when a low pressure trough and another cool front cross the region. In any case, we’ll again have to settle for upper 60s and a chilly breeze , though some sunshine should develop.
We’ll pull out of this pattern starting Tuesday, when a dome of high pressure moves east, returning sunshine and milder temperatures, starting with the low 70s and getting back to well above average by Thursday .
The Tuesday-Friday period should be mainly dry, with a partly to mostly sunny daytime sky.
In the extended range, upper air model ensembles depict a warm high pressure ridge stacking up over the Midwest and the Great Lakes by next weekend. Such a pattern would bring more summerlike temperatures extending into the following week.
The Climate Prediction Center temperature probabilities 8-14 day outlook is in accordance with this thinking in our region.
In the last decade, climate modelers began to see evidence global warming would begin to contribute to more wind shear and turbulence at flight levels. Even before a recent major incident on a flight to Singapore, the data has been growing more supportive of this originally hypothetical link. From 2009 to 2022, the Federal Aviation Administration reported 163 serious injuries caused by turbulence on U.S. registered airliners. Turbulence can range from light to the more annoying moderate and the rarer severe intensity with its accompanying injuries risk.
The rarest is extreme turbulence which can, on occasion, cause aircraft structural damage as well as more injuries. Turbulence can be caused by thermal vertical updrafts, sudden change in wind direction or speed at flight level, change in jet stream dynamics, nearby convection (usually thunderstorms) or encountering wave vortices produced by aircraft encountered by trailing aircraft, most commonly on takeoff. The latter type is not likely linked with climate change.
The most difficult to predict and detect type of turbulence is called clear air turbulence. It often occurs with no visible signature for pilots, and is modeled only with mixed (though slowly improving) levels of accuracy. It can hit with no warning, making it more dangerous and much more difficult for pilots to avoid unless warned by other pilot reports ahead of them.
It is known higher atmospheric temperatures (now more prevalent due to more greenhouse emissions from using fossil fuels) increases wind shear at flight level altitudes. The original hypothesis was borne out in a 2019 study, which contained hard data on the shear increase during this period of accelerated warming. Even at the rarer severe level of intensity, the increase between 1979 and 2020 is readily apparent in this 2023 Geophysical Research Letters graphic .
Turbulence related to thunderstorms is also strengthening, as global warming has ties to an increase in the strength of convective cells, producing more violent updrafts and downdrafts.
None of this is to suggest the increase in turbulence will be tied to more air crashes. However, the risk of passenger injury and, even more so, flight attendant injury is growing. The simplest remedy for passengers is to remain buckled up throughout the flight when not visiting a restroom, whether or not the captain has turned the seat belt sign off. (Personally, I’d like every flight to have such an advisory announcement. Stay belted.) Virtually all serious injuries are suffered by unbelted attendants who have no choice in their jobs and passengers. After all, most of us wear our seat belts in cars. Why would we not take that simple precaution in airliners? In addition, babies under 2 years of age are permitted to be seated on parents’ laps. The FAA, the National Transportation Safety Board, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the Flight Attendants-CWA have all recommended separate seats for infants. In severe turbulence, a parent caught unaware will be unable to secure the baby from a violent toss upward (from the FAA , for parents).
For those of you who wish to learn more about the mechanics of air turbulence, here is a fine primer from the National Weather Service .